I played around with LC 4 open beta a bit and I cannot really understand how the sales calculations work. First I thought I should be able to sell a lot more than I actually do (because my cars are awesome of course), but then I started to question that. This is the case:
- An insane start in Fruinia, difficulty 10.00, competitors at 107%
- first off, I have 2 trims, 1 for GT P., 1 for Conv. Lux.
- after a bit of time, I get some awareness and a market size of 7 and 8 in those two categories.
- Competitiveness is not great, but also not too bad: 98 in GT P. and 97.1 in Conv. Lux.
- Affordabilities are 75% and 49%
- I sell 2 and 1 cars only.
I would expect to sell a little less than 75% in GT P., but I sell only 28.6%.
I would expect to sell a little less than 49% in Conv. Lux., but I only sell 12.7%.
So I tried to understand how it works:
Let’s assume a quadratic competitiveness relation with 0 sales at 50 competititveness. That would give me 0.96^2 = 0.9216. This times 0.75 affordability gives 0.6912. There’s still a huge gap to the 28.6%. So I guess it is not that easy.
After watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_TuC_yg6Bk from 2015 (don’t know how up to date this is) I assume that the competitors take away some of the potential buyers. Currently there are 13 competing trims in both categories, with the best one probably scoring 100 competitiveness. Am I right to assume that the sales are so bad because they are all pretty equally matched?
And another question regarding awareness: Let’s say there is a buyer demographic where my competition has exactly the same car as I have (like the 99 trim problem), does that mean I cannot get over 50% of sales of my (small) awareness group? What if my competitors awareness group is the same small size? What if both groups do not overlap? What do the others not aware of any company buy?
As a summary
- Could you please point me to information about the current sales model? The Youtube search function is not really helpful, the recent updates are just called “Little Dev Update”
- I feel that I am not able to estimate how many cars I can sell only by knowing the number of competitors, competitiveness, affordability and awareness. Is the only way to get a feeling the forecasting tool? It’s kind of hard when you don’t have any awareness in the beginning. Maybe an option to manually set a rough awareness number (per country)?
Edit: Manually setting awareness number guesses is probably a PITA. Would it be possible to auomatically extrapolate the changes in awareness until project completion based on the current marketing and dealership settings? If you are starting from scratch, you could first set your marketing and dealerships and then start to design the first car.
Thanks a lot in advance!